Did I Miss the Market? Colfax Sellers Aren't Stuck

By Erin Newington, Realtor® | Colfax, CA

The Weight of the Window

There’s a moment you remember.

It was probably 2021. Maybe early 2022. A neighbor sold their place in four days. Over asking. Cash offer. No inspections. You watched the moving truck pull away and thought: That could be us.

But you didn’t list. Maybe the timing wasn’t right. Maybe you needed one more year with the kids in that school. Maybe you figured you’d catch the next wave.

Then rates climbed. Headlines screamed about corrections. Your Zillow estimate started moving the wrong direction. And somewhere along the way, you stopped checking.

Now it’s a new year, and some mornings you do the math in your head—what you could have gotten versus what you think you’d get now. The gap feels like a mistake you made. A door you let close.

Here’s what I need you to hear: That weight you’re carrying? It’s real. But the story you’re telling yourself about being “stuck”? That part might not be true.

Why the Regret Is Normal

Let’s name the feeling for what it is.

You feel like you missed your shot. Like everyone else was smarter, faster, more decisive—and you hesitated.

You’re not alone in this. Over 80% of homeowners with pandemic-era mortgage rates say they feel “locked in” right now. Nearly 60% of U.S. mortgage holders have rates at or below 4%. Trading a 3.1% rate for something in the 6s feels like setting money on fire.

So you stay. You tell yourself it’s the rational choice. But underneath that math is something else: the quiet belief that you blew it.

Here’s what nobody’s saying out loud: The regret is based on a market that doesn’t exist anymore.

You’re measuring yourself against a moment—mid-2021, early 2022—that was driven by emergency interest rates, COVID relocations, and a level of buyer panic we may never see again. That wasn’t normal. That was a fever spike.

The question isn’t whether you missed the peak.

The question is: What does your actual position look like today—in the market that actually exists?

2021 vs. 2025: The Map Changed

Let me walk you through what actually happened in Colfax. Not the headlines. The data.

The 2021–2022 Frenzy

During the peak, Colfax looked like this:

Months of inventory hovered around 2–2.5 months (extreme seller’s market)
Average sold prices surged into the $700,000s–$800,000s
Price per square foot exceeded $350 at the highs
Homes sold in days, not weeks
Bidding wars and waived inspections became routine

This was not a normal Colfax market. It was an emotion-driven, scarcity-powered surge that pushed prices faster than fundamentals could justify.

The 2023–2024 Correction

As rates rose and economic anxiety set in, Colfax entered a reset:

Months of inventory climbed to 4–6 months
By late 2024, inventory briefly spiked toward 15 months
Average sold prices pulled back to the $480,000–$560,000 range
Price per square foot normalized to roughly $260–$310
Buyers returned to inspections, negotiations, and due diligence

This wasn’t a crash. It was a recalibration—driven by affordability pressure, not by people abandoning Colfax.

Where We Are Now

Today, the Colfax market has stabilized into what we call a balanced market:

Average Active Price: ~$743,000
Average Sold Price (YTD): ~$569,000
Year-Over-Year Sold Price Growth: +11%
Homes For Sale: ~38
Homes Pending: ~15
Months of Inventory: 3.8 months

That last number—3.8 months—is the one that matters most.

At 3.8 months of inventory, Colfax is no longer overheated. It’s no longer stalled. It’s no longer in panic mode. It’s functioning. Homes that are priced correctly and presented well are selling. Buyers are active. The market absorbed the correction and came out the other side.

The window didn’t close. It changed shape.

Three Data Points Every Colfax Seller Should Check

Before you decide you’re stuck, look at three numbers. Not Zillow guesses. Real indicators.

1. Your Purchase Price vs. Today’s Sold Comps

Not asking prices—sold prices for similar homes in the last 90 days.

Colfax’s average sold price year-to-date is $569,000, up 11% from last year. If you bought before the 2021 surge, you’re likely sitting on meaningful equity—even after the correction. If you bought at the peak, you may be flat or slightly down, but “flat” isn’t the same as “underwater.”

Pull the comps. Know your number.

2. Your Rate vs. Your Actual Life Cost

Yes, you have a 3% mortgage. But what’s that rate actually costing you?

If you’re commuting an hour each way to a job you’ve outgrown. If you’re maintaining 2,400 square feet when you use 1,200. If you’re paying property taxes on acreage you’ll never develop. If you’re stuck in a house that no longer fits your family—

The rate isn’t free. You’re paying for it in other currencies.

Research shows that once homeowners face rates above 5%, they become nearly twice as likely to consider selling. The breaking point isn’t the math. It’s when the life cost outweighs the rate benefit.

3. What’s Happening Under the Surface

Here’s a number most people miss: Pending home sales in Colfax are up 150% year-over-year, signaling a strong return of buyer demand after the 2024 slowdown.

Meanwhile, active inventory is down nearly 12% from last year. That’s tightening supply meeting rising demand.

Translation: Buyers are competing again. Not in the frenzy of 2021, but in a real, sustainable way. Sellers who price correctly and prepare their homes properly are moving.

This isn’t a dead market. It’s a discerning market. And that’s actually better for serious sellers who do the work.

How to Make a Confident Move Now

If you’ve read this far, part of you is ready to stop waiting. Here’s how to move forward without spiraling.

Step 1: Get a Real Number

Not a Zillow estimate. Not what your neighbor said. A proper comparative market analysis from someone who tracks Colfax weekly.

You need to know:

What similar homes have actually sold for in the last 90 days
What’s currently competing with yours
Where your home realistically fits

Data beats assumptions. Every time.

Step 2: Do the Whole Math

The “golden handcuffs” calculation only holds up if you ignore everything else.

Factor in:

What you’d net after selling at today’s realistic price
Your carrying costs if you stay (maintenance, taxes, insurance, opportunity cost)
What your life looks like in the home you’d move to
Whether the rate difference actually breaks you—or just feels uncomfortable

For a lot of sellers, the spread is smaller than they assumed. Especially if you’re downsizing, relocating to a lower-cost area, or buying with significant equity.

Step 3: Pick a Decision Date

Indefinite deliberation is its own kind of prison.

Give yourself a deadline—30 days, 60 days—to gather the information, run the numbers, and make a call. Not “someday when rates drop.” Not “after the election” or “next spring.” A specific date. On a calendar.

The kind of homeowner who moves confidently isn’t the one with perfect timing.

It’s the one who decides.

When Waiting Makes Sense (And When It Doesn’t)

I’m not here to pressure you into selling. Sometimes staying is the right call. Here’s how to know the difference.

Waiting makes sense if:

You genuinely love your home and have no life reason to move
Your financial situation requires stability for the next 2–3 years
You’re waiting on a specific event (job transition, retirement, kids graduating) within a defined timeline
The math truly doesn’t work for your next move right now

Waiting doesn’t make sense if:

You’re staying because of regret about “missing the peak”
You’re waiting for rates to drop back to 3–4% (they’re projected to stay above 6% through 2026)
Your home no longer fits your life, but you’re afraid to run the numbers
You’ve been “thinking about it” for more than a year without taking a single step

The market will keep moving. Your life will keep moving. At some point, the cost of indecision exceeds the cost of action.

The Story You’re Telling Yourself

Here’s what I’ve learned working with Colfax homeowners through every phase of this cycle:

The people who feel “stuck” usually aren’t stuck by the market. They’re stuck by a story—a narrative about what they should have done, what they could have gotten, what the “smart” move would have been three years ago.

That story keeps them frozen. Waiting for a window that’s never going to reopen the same way.

But there’s another story available.

One where you acknowledge the peak happened, and you didn’t catch it, and that’s okay. One where you look at today’s numbers with clear eyes and make a decision based on your actual life—not a hypothetical one from 2021.

The sellers I see winning right now aren’t the ones who timed the market perfectly.

They’re the ones who stopped waiting for permission and started asking the real questions:

What do I need? What do I have? What’s the move?

Ready to Find Out Where You Actually Stand?

If you’ve been carrying around the weight of “I missed it,” let’s have a conversation and find out what’s actually true.

I’m Erin Newington—a Colfax resident, a Realtor® with Real Brokerage, and the President of the Historic Colfax Downtown Association. I’m not going to tell you what you want to hear. I’m going to tell you what the data says and help you figure out what makes sense for your situation.

No pressure. No pitch. Just clarity.

Let’s talk:

📅 Book a Clarity Session

Because the worst place to be isn’t “I sold at the wrong time.”

It’s “I never found out what was possible.”